Txog rau thaum xaus ntawm xyoo 2022, cov khoom thauj khoom thauj hauv kev lag luam thauj ntau yuav rov tuaj dua thiab tus nqi thauj khoom yuav nres.Txawm li cas los xij, qhov sib txawv ntawm kev ua lag luam xyoo tom ntej tseem yog tag nrho ntawm qhov tsis paub tseeb.Cov nqi yuav tsum plummet "yuav luag rau qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi".Muaj nthwv dej ntawm kev ceeb ntshai txij li Tuam Tshoj tau tshem tawm kev txwv tsis pub muaj kev sib kis thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis.Kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam lag luam poob qis los ntawm ib feem peb ntawm lub Kaum Ob Hlis kawg.Nws yuav siv sijhawm li 3-6 lub hlis rau kev thov hauv tsev thiab sab nraud kom rov zoo li ob feem peb ntawm theem ua ntej kev sib kis.
Txij li ib nrab xyoo 2022, tus nqi thauj khoom thauj tau poob qis txhua lub sijhawm.Kev nce nqi thiab kev ua tsov rog Russia-Ukraine tau txwv kev yuav khoom ntawm Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas, ua ke nrog cov khoom lag luam qeeb qeeb, thiab cov khoom thauj tau poob qis.Kev xa khoom los ntawm Asia mus rau Asmeskas poob 21 feem pua hauv Kaum Ib Hlis los ntawm ib xyoo dhau los mus rau 1.324,600 TEUs, nce los ntawm 18 feem pua hauv Lub Kaum Hli, raws li Descartes Datamyne, lub tuam txhab tshawb fawb Asmeskas.
Txij li lub Cuaj Hlis, qhov poob ntawm cov khoom thauj tau nthuav dav.Cov thawv xa khoom los ntawm Asia mus rau Asmeskas tau poob rau plaub lub hlis ncaj rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis los ntawm ib xyoo dhau los, ua rau muaj kev xav tau qeeb hauv Asmeskas.Tuam Tshoj, uas muaj tus nqi siab tshaj plaws los ntawm kev thauj khoom hauv av, pom 30 feem pua poob, lub hli thib peb ntawm ntau dua 10 feem pua poob qis. Nyab Laj tau pom qhov nce ntawm 26 feem pua los ntawm lub hauv paus qis xyoo tas los vim tus mob coronavirus pandemic qeeb zuj zus thiab xa tawm.
Txawm li cas los xij, tau muaj kev nrawm nrawm hauv kev lag luam freight tsis ntev los no.Cov khoom ntim ntawm Evergreen Shipping thiab Yangming Shipping hauv Tebchaws Meskas tau rov qab mus rau tag nrho lub xeev.Ntxiv nrog rau cov nyhuv ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj ua ntej lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm Tuam Tshoj mainland tseem yog qhov tseem ceeb.
Kev ua lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tab tom pib tuav lub caij nyoog me me ntawm kev xa khoom, tab sis xyoo tom ntej tseem yuav yog xyoo nyuaj.Thaum cov cim qhia ntawm qhov kawg ntawm qhov poob ntawm cov nqi thauj khoom tau tshwm sim, nws nyuaj rau kwv yees seb qhov rov qab yuav nyob deb npaum li cas.Xyoo tom ntej yuav cuam tshuam qhov kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb tshaj plaws hauv tus nqi thauj khoom, IMO ob txoj cai tshiab carbon emissions yuav siv tau, lub ntiaj teb tsom mus rau nthwv dej ntawm lub nkoj tawg.
Cov neeg nqa khoom loj tau pib siv ntau lub tswv yim los tiv thaiv qhov poob ntawm cov khoom ntim.Ua ntej, lawv tau pib kho hom kev ua haujlwm ntawm Far East-Europe txoj kev.Qee lub davhlau tau xaiv los hla Suez Canal thiab rov qab mus rau Cape of Good Hope thiab tom qab ntawd mus rau Tebchaws Europe.Qhov kev hloov pauv no yuav ntxiv 10 hnub rau lub sijhawm taug kev ntawm Asia thiab Europe, txuag ntawm Suez tus lej xov tooj thiab ua kom qeeb dua kev mus ncig ua raws li cov pa roj carbon monoxide.Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws, tus naj npawb ntawm cov nkoj xav tau yuav nce ntxiv, tsis ncaj qha diluting lub peev xwm tshiab.
1. Kev thov yuav nyob qis hauv 2023: tus nqi hauv hiav txwv yuav nyob qis thiab tsis hloov pauv
"Tus nqi ntawm kev noj qab haus huv yog noj rau cov neeg siv khoom siv lub zog, ua rau muaj kev xav tau tsawg dua rau cov khoom ntim khoom tuaj txawv teb chaws. Tsis muaj kev qhia txog kev daws teeb meem ntawm lub ntiaj teb, thiab peb cia siab tias cov dej hiav txwv yuav poob qis."Patrik Berglund tau kwv yees hais tias, "Qhov ntawd tau hais tias, yog tias qhov xwm txheej kev lag luam tsis zoo ntxiv, nws tuaj yeem hnyav dua."
Nws tau tshaj tawm tias IB lub tuam txhab xa khoom tau hais tias nws nyuaj rau kwv yees kev txhim kho ntawm kev lag luam xa khoom ntau xyoo tom ntej.Lub khw muag khoom ntim tau stagnated nyob rau hauv ob peb lub hlis dhau los tom qab kev poob qis hauv cov nqi thauj khoom thiab kev thov."Kev kwv yees tag nrho kev lag luam ib puag ncig tau dhau los ua nyuaj dua nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm qhov tsis paub tseeb," lub tuam txhab tau hais.
Nws tau hais txog ntau yam kev pheej hmoo: "Piv txwv li, kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm Russia-Ukraine, qhov cuam tshuam ntawm txoj cai cais tawm, thiab kev sib tham ua haujlwm ntawm Spanish thiab Asmeskas cov chaw nres nkoj."Tshaj ntawd, muaj peb qhov kev txhawj xeeb tshwj xeeb.
Kev poob qis hauv qhov chaw tus nqi: SCFI qhov chaw cov nqi nce siab thaum pib lub Ib Hlis xyoo no, thiab tom qab qhov poob qis, tag nrho cov poob yog 78% txij thaum pib lub Ib Hlis.Txoj kev Shanghai-Northern Europe poob qis 86 feem pua, thiab Shanghai-Spanish-American Trans-Pacific txoj kev poob qis 82 feem pua ntawm $ 1,423 ib FEU, 19 feem pua qis dua qhov nruab nrab 2010-2019.
Tej yam tuaj yeem ua phem rau ib leeg thiab lwm tus neeg nqa khoom.ONE cia siab tias cov nqi khiav lag luam kom nce thiab cov nqi thauj khoom kom poob qis thaum kev nce nqi nce mus rau ob tus lej.
Ntawm cov nyiaj khwv tau los, puas yuav poob qis los ntawm Q3 mus rau Q4 txuas ntxiv ntawm tus nqi qub mus txog 2023?"Kev cia siab ntawm kev nce nqi yuav tsum tau," Mr ONE teb.Lub tuam txhab tau txiav nws cov nyiaj tau los kwv yees rau ib nrab xyoo ntawm nws cov nyiaj txiag thiab hais tias cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev khiav hauj lwm ntau dua li ib nrab piv nrog rau thawj thiab thib ob ib nrab xyoo tas los.
2. cov nqi cog lus mus sij hawm ntev yog nyob rau hauv siab: cov nqi thauj khoom yuav txuas ntxiv hloov mus rau theem qis
Tsis tas li ntawd, nrog rau qhov chaw tus nqi poob qis, cov tuam txhab thauj khoom hais tias cov ntawv cog lus ntev dhau los tau raug rov hais dua kom qis dua.Thaum nug yog tias nws cov neeg siv khoom tau thov kom txo tus nqi cog lus, ONE hais tias: "Thaum daim ntawv cog lus tam sim no tab tom yuav tas, ONE yuav pib sib tham txog kev rov ua dua tshiab nrog cov neeg siv khoom."
Kepler Cheuvreux tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Anders R.Karlsen tau hais tias: "Qhov kev pom zoo rau xyoo tom ntej yog qhov tsis zoo, cov nqi cog lus tseem yuav pib sib tham ntawm qib qis thiab cov neeg nqa khoom cov nyiaj tau los yuav normalize."Alphaliner yav dhau los suav tias cov tuam txhab xa khoom cov nyiaj tau los yuav tsum poob ntawm 30% thiab 70%, raws li cov ntaub ntawv kwv yees ua ntej tshaj tawm los ntawm cov tuam txhab xa khoom.
Cov neeg siv khoom poob qis txawm tias txhais tau hais tias cov neeg nqa khoom tam sim no "sib tw rau ntim," raws li Xeneta CEO.Jørgen Lian, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas qib siab ntawm DNB Markets, kwv yees tias kab hauv qab hauv khw ntim khoom yuav raug sim hauv 2023.
Raws li James Hookham, tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm Pawg Neeg xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb, taw qhia hauv nws qhov kev tshuaj xyuas peb lub hlis twg ntawm lub khw muag khoom thauj khoom, tshaj tawm lub lim tiam no: "Ib qho ntawm cov lus nug loj mus rau xyoo 2023 yog ntau npaum li cas ntawm lawv cov neeg xa khoom poob qis yuav cog lus rau kev sib cog lus dua. thiab qhov ntim ntau npaum li cas yuav raug muab tso tseg rau qhov chaw ua lag luam. Lub khw muag khoom xav tias yuav poob qis dua qib ua ntej kis thoob qhov txhia chaw hauv lub asthiv tom ntej. "
Post lub sij hawm: Feb-14-2023